Design principles
Decision relevance first
Section titled “Decision relevance first”Every estimate exists to support an action. If no plausible result can change the decision, further measurement has low value.
Intervals over false precision
Section titled “Intervals over false precision”A point estimate can appear in the center of a range, but never by itself. Bounds and confidence are part of the answer.
Provenance over plausibility
Section titled “Provenance over plausibility”The memo labels direct evidence, assumptions, reference classes, and inference. Current claims require current sources.
Smallest useful method
Section titled “Smallest useful method”Choose among clarification, decomposition, calibrated ranges, small samples, value of information, and simulation. Use the simplest method that reduces uncertainty relevant to the decision.
Portable core, optional companions
Section titled “Portable core, optional companions”The published skill works by itself. Other HTMA skills can deepen a step, but missing companion skills never break the core workflow.
Keep missing inputs explicit
Section titled “Keep missing inputs explicit”When a responsible number requires an identifier, effective period, jurisdiction, lookup, or private fact, numeric fields remain null. The status explains what is missing and how to unlock the estimate.
Verification is part of the output
Section titled “Verification is part of the output”Before finalizing, the agent checks units, interval consistency, source provenance, sensitive information, threshold implications, and JSON/prose agreement.