Output contract

A complete result contains a measurement memo and an HTMA_RESULT appendix with matching values and status. Blocked results keep numeric fields null and name the missing inputs.

Memo sections

1. Compact relevance summary
2. Date and scope
3. Question made precise
4. Short answer
5. Priors and sources
6. Decomposition
7. Calibrated range
8. Value of information
9. What would move the estimate
10. Recommendation
11. Sources
12. HTMA_RESULT

JSON schema

type HTMAResult = {
  quantity: string
  unit: string
  low_90: number | null
  central: number | null
  high_90: number | null
  confidence: string
  decision_threshold: number | string | null
  threshold_implication: string
  top_uncertainty_driver: string
  estimate_status:
    | "estimated"
    | "needs_clarification"
    | "needs_identifier"
    | "needs_effective_period"
    | "lookup_required"
    | "not_estimable"
  blocking_missing_inputs: string[]
  assumed_target: string | null
  next_measurement_step: string
}

Empty template

This is a schema template, not a measured result:

{
  "quantity": "[quantity of interest]",
  "unit": "[unit]",
  "low_90": null,
  "central": null,
  "high_90": null,
  "confidence": "90%",
  "decision_threshold": null,
  "threshold_implication": "[no action comparison until the threshold is supplied]",
  "top_uncertainty_driver": "[largest remaining uncertainty]",
  "estimate_status": "needs_clarification",
  "blocking_missing_inputs": ["[required missing input]"],
  "assumed_target": null,
  "next_measurement_step": "[specific input or source lookup]"
}

Status meanings

Status	Meaning
estimated	A responsible numeric interval is available.
needs_clarification	The decision or target quantity is ambiguous.
needs_identifier	A required entity, product, case, or account identifier is absent.
needs_effective_period	The applicable date or time period is missing.
lookup_required	A named current external value needs a direct-source refresh before estimating.
not_estimable	Available evidence cannot support a responsible interval, including when the requested private actual is unavailable.

estimated requires numeric low_90, central, and high_90 values plus an empty blocking_missing_inputs array. A non-estimated status requires null numeric fields, an explicit blocker, and a specific next measurement.

A missing decision threshold does not by itself block a responsible numeric range. In that state, decision_threshold remains null, the memo withholds an action comparison, and the result identifies threshold collection as decision context rather than fabricating one.

Verification

A valid result satisfies all of these:

• low ≤ central ≤ high when numeric;
• units are consistent across components and the final range;
• confidence matches the named interval;
• threshold implication matches the numeric range or explicitly withholds comparison when the threshold is absent;
• top uncertainty driver appears in the value-of-information section;
• missing inputs are empty only for an estimated result;
• next measurement is specific enough to execute; and
• JSON parses and agrees with the prose.