Output contract

Every complete response contains a written memo and an HTMA_RESULT JSON appendix.

Memo sections

1. Compact relevance summary
2. Date and scope
3. Question made precise
4. Short answer
5. Priors and sources
6. Decomposition
7. Calibrated range
8. Value of information
9. What would move the estimate
10. Recommendation
11. Sources
12. HTMA_RESULT

JSON schema

type HTMAResult = {
  quantity: string
  unit: string
  low_90: number | null
  central: number | null
  high_90: number | null
  confidence: string
  decision_threshold: number | string | null
  threshold_implication: string
  top_uncertainty_driver: string
  estimate_status:
    | "estimated"
    | "needs_clarification"
    | "needs_identifier"
    | "needs_effective_period"
    | "lookup_required"
    | "not_estimable"
  blocking_missing_inputs: string[]
  assumed_target: string | null
  next_measurement_step: string
}

Empty template

This is a schema template, not a measured result:

{
  "quantity": "[quantity of interest]",
  "unit": "[unit]",
  "low_90": null,
  "central": null,
  "high_90": null,
  "confidence": "90%",
  "decision_threshold": null,
  "threshold_implication": "[above, below, or overlaps threshold and action implication]",
  "top_uncertainty_driver": "[largest remaining uncertainty]",
  "estimate_status": "needs_clarification",
  "blocking_missing_inputs": ["[required missing input]"],
  "assumed_target": null,
  "next_measurement_step": "[specific input or source lookup]"
}

Status semantics

Status	Meaning
estimated	A responsible numeric interval is available.
needs_clarification	The decision or target quantity is ambiguous.
needs_identifier	A required entity, product, case, or account identifier is absent.
needs_effective_period	The applicable date or time period is missing.
lookup_required	A current direct source must be refreshed before estimating.
not_estimable	Available evidence cannot support a responsible interval.

When the status is not estimated, low_90, central, and high_90 remain null.

Verification

A valid result satisfies all of these:

• low ≤ central ≤ high when numeric;
• units are consistent across components and the final range;
• confidence matches the named interval;
• threshold implication matches the numeric range;
• top uncertainty driver appears in the value-of-information section;
• missing inputs are empty only for an estimated result;
• next measurement is specific enough to execute; and
• JSON parses and agrees with the prose.